Confirmation Bias

Confirmation Bias (also known as "MySide Bias") is a phenomenon where people select the information that supports their presuppositions.  In other words, if you think something will happen you will be on the lookout for evidence that proves you were right.  Your "confirmation" of your hypothesis is completely biased.

This affects professional relationships, alliances, and channel partnerships in many ways.  We all want to be right whether we are looking for some positive outcome or, maybe more powerfully, even if we predict a less than stellar outcome.

Before we really dive into how to deal with confirmation bias, think about that last sentence again.  We all want to be right, even if we predict something that we don't want.  Is it possible that you could have a negative opinion about how a business relationship will work out and then proceed to look for reasons why it is failing to reach its goals?

Self-Fulfilling Prophecy - This is what happens when we predict an outcome that we can control and we (usually sub-consciously) work toward that outcome.  The more controllable prophecy is usually the one that predicts failure since it is much easier to produce failure than success.  It's possible that you have fears that something won't work and then go ahead and make decisions and/or take actions that lead straight to failure.  What's worse, you're probably not doing it on purpose.  It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.

This can manifest itself in a lot of different forms.  Small tasks and short-term projects can be sabotaged for all sorts of reasons and long-term goals can be derailed in the slightest ways that take you far from your desired outcome over long periods of time.  If you think something will happen you are likely to work toward that end result, whether you are doing it on purpose or not.

How can this be stopped, you ask?  I have a few ideas:

1. Identify Predictions - Every single time a goal is set you must write down what you think will happen.  Short term, long term, it doesn't matter.  Write it down.  When you see it in black and white you can identify it for what it is.  Are you being optimistic?  Pessimistic?  Realistic?  Shooting for the moon?  Identify the reality of the prediction and call it for what it is.  If you are being pessimistic or unrealistic, work through it with someone you trust.  It's possible that the goal is not likely to be achieved and you might be right to be pessimistic, but the last thing you want in that situation is to contribute to the demise (unintentionally) of the project or goal.
2. Check Your Attitude - How do you feel about this thing?  Do you like the stated goal?  I mean, do you really like the concept?  Are you on board?  Do you feel like you are part of the team and you'll fight to win with the group, or are you thinking that you are the lone voice in the wilderness thinking that this thing will never get done.  Listen, you don't want to be a lone wolf or some kind of corporate renegade.  Even if you end up being right it won't feel like a win for you.  If you are always the naysayer on the team it won't be a positive experience even if you are correct.  Check your attitude and work toward achievable goals and positive direction.  It is probably very helpful to put pen to paper here as well.  And, consulting a team mate or mentor is never a bad thing either.
3. Course Correct - Don't let this thing spiral out of control.  Keep your eyes on the horizon and keep driving toward positive outcomes.  Don't let small setbacks sink your good attitude and don't let your perceptions drive the project or partnership toward failure.  Most worthy goals are much more of a marathon than a sprint, so don't lose focus and correct the course you are on frequently.  It's very easy to get your trajectory just slightly off and find yourself way off the mark months later.  If you are slightly off, correct the course slightly back in line with your goals.  It's much easier to make small corrections periodically than to make big changes every once in a while.
4. Hit Milestones - One of the best ways to accomplish #3 on this list (Course Correct) is to set milestones along the way.  A professional partnership or alliance ought to be for the long-haul and many of the most worthwhile efforts you undertake together will last for many months or years.  The best way to avoid confirmation bias of a negative outcome is to break up the goal into shorter-term milestones.  Let's say you are working with a partner to release a new product in 18 months.  The team will have a program associated with that product release that will detail all of the projects contained therein:  research cycles, development processes, product testing, market development, training, final product release, etc.  It is imperative for the long-term health of the alliance that your teams mirror the milestones in the projects of that program.  Set shorter term goals and put stakes in the ground.  Hit every milestone and you will stay on course and feel better about the direction in which you are going together.
5. Set Multi-Level Expectations - One last thought here.  So often we will have a goal something like this: "Company A's Widget has been a best seller for Company B, producing ever-increasing sales over the past five years with growth rates of at least 8% per year.  Our goal for this year is a growth rate of 12.5%.  With the talent we have on this alliance there is no reason why we shouldn't be able to exceed that target."  As an alliance manager you may look at that goal and think to yourself, "Those facts are basically true, we do always grow more than 8% per year but we've only topped 12.5% once, and last year was only 9.8%.  Plus, there are no major product improvements coming up to spike demand.  I just don't see how we can get to 12.5%."  The spectre of confirmation bias may limit what this alliance can do this year because the alliance manager just doesn't see how the stated goal is possible.  However, another great way to limit the impact of confirmation bias would be to create a multi-level approach to these stated goals.  Something like this might give everyone a stronger view of the approach:  "This is a strong and vibrant alliance that we can all be proud of.  We have produced growth rates in excess of 8% every year for five years and we cannot accept anything less than that this year.  Our secondary goal is a modest increase over last year: a 10% growth rate.  Our aspirations though, are higher, and we see growth in excess of 12.5% as very possible if we manage our business the way we know we can.  12.5% is our stretch goal for the year and we will continue to speak to that number as the year unfolds."  What happens when you do that?  Your goal isn't an all-or-nothing proposal.  We set goals and then we are either limited by how weak they end up being or we are discouraged by how difficult they ended up.  Why not set a triple-level goal?  If this alliance grows at 8.3% then that's a good thing since they have exceeded the baseline.  10.5%?  Well, that's great since that was what everyone was hoping we could do and it is actually a little better than last year.  12.7%?  That is amazing!  We climbed the mountain and achieved the huge stretch target.  Any of those levels is something you can be proud of, and best of all this approach didn't limit anyone and it didn't discourage anyone.

Do your best to be cognizant of your own biases and especially where you may think that something is likely to fall short.  You may end up with a confirmation bias that contributes to the failure, and you'd much rather be part of the solution than the problem.